Solar didn’t suddenly stop working in . What changed was the margin for error.

When federal tax credits were strong, solar systems could be oversized, overpriced, or poorly designed and still feel acceptable because incentives absorbed inefficiency. In , those buffers are gone. Solar still works—but only if cost is controlled and the system is designed around how electricity is actually priced and used.

This article is based on real homeowner experience after electrifying major household loads—electric vehicles, heating, and hot water—and then living through the real performance, limitations, and surprises of a modern solar-plus-battery system in California.

Is solar still worth it in without tax credits?

Yes, but only for the right homes and the right designs.

In , the question is no longer whether incentives are available. The real question is whether a household can reduce how much expensive electricity it buys from the grid.

Without tax credits, solar economics become honest. Systems that rely on exporting energy for credits tend to disappoint, while systems designed for self-consumption and peak-hour avoidance can still deliver meaningful savings.

Electrification changes the solar equation in California, especially with EV charging costs

In California, electricity rates vary sharply by time of day. EV charging is a large, time-sensitive load that can be inexpensive or very costly depending on when and where charging occurs. Charging exclusively during off-peak utility hours can make EV ownership economic. Charging during peak hours—or relying on public fast chargers—can significantly increase costs and, in some case, approach or exceed the cost of driving a gasoline vehicle.

This is why EV ownership does not automatically guarantee savings. In households with multiple EVs and high annual mileage, electricity becomes a major operating expense. Without careful charging, EVs can increase exposure to California’s highest electricity rates.

EVs deliver their strongest financial benefits when paired with a properly sized solar and battery system. Solar allows EV charging to occur using self-generated or stored off-peak energy, reducing reliance on expensive grid electricity. When the system is designed correctly—and when homeowners avoid premium full-service installers by purchasing equipment directly and working with local electricians—EV charging costs can drop substantially, often producing savings that justify the system.

Heat pumps are efficient, but PG&E time-of-use structure determines cost

Heat pumps are highly efficient, but efficiency does not determine cost—rates do. Heating demand often overlaps with peak electricity pricing windows.

Gas pricing is generally flat, while electricity pricing is not. As a result, heat pumps can cost more than gas during peak hours if the system is not designed to avoid those windows.

Electric tankless water heaters create short but expensive demand spikes

Electric tankless water heaters generate heat on demand and draw very high power instantly. These short spikes can exceed what a residential battery system can supply at that moment.

When that happens, the system draws from the grid or sheds other loads, often during peak pricing windows. Understanding instantaneous demand is as important as understanding monthly energy use.

Designing batteries to avoid PG&E peak-hour electricity usage

Batteries are not just backup devices—they are critical financial infrastructure in California’s time-of-use electricity environment.

A proper battery strategy focuses on eliminating peak-hour grid purchases, not simply storing excess solar. Under PG&E’s time-of-use plans, peak electricity rates are often three times or more than off-peak rates. This means that even without additional solar production, using batteries strategically to supply power during peak hours can dramatically reduce monthly electricity bills.

For many households, this is the single biggest lever in solar economics. By charging batteries during off-peak utility hours or during midday solar production, and then discharging them during peak pricing windows, homeowners can avoid the most expensive electricity on the bill entirely. In practice, this alone can reduce a PG&E bill by 40–60%, even in winter months when solar production is limited.

The key is sizing and configuring the battery system around real household peak-hour usage, not around generic backup assumptions.

A proper battery strategy focuses on eliminating peak-hour grid purchases, not simply storing excess solar. Under PG&E’s time-of-use rate plans, peak hours are priced higher than off-peak, which is why shifting usage away from peak can materially reduce bills.

Why adding more solar panels is often the wrong fix in California winters

When winter solar production is limited by sun angle, shading, or geography, adding more solar panels rarely solves the real problem.

In much of California, especially in hilly or partially shaded areas, winter solar output drops sharply. The sun sits lower on the horizon, daylight hours are shorter, and panels produce a fraction of their summer output. In these conditions, adding more panels tends to increase excess daytime production in summer, but does very little to improve nighttime or winter availability, when electricity is actually needed the most.

Under utility rules, this mismatch matters more than ever. Excess solar generated during summer or midday hours is typically exported at very low value and does not meaningfully offset winter nighttime consumption. In other words, a larger system that produces far more energy than the home can use during summer often fails to improve winter economics and can significantly reduce overall return on investment.

The more effective approach is right-sizing—installing enough solar to meet realistic annual production targets without creating extreme summer surplus, and then using batteries to shift energy into the hours that actually matter. In California’s current rate environment, battery strategy and usage optimization consistently outperform panel expansion.

Advanced Guides & Deep Dives

If you want the full “how it actually works in real life” details behind this pillar—timelines, permitting friction, equipment choices, and cost-structure decisions—start with these deeper guides: